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Value / Fair odds
Understand value bets and fair odds
Learn how the model converts probability to a fair price and detects value.
How fair odds are calculated
We estimate probability for a market and convert it into a fair price without bookmaker margin.
How to interpret value edges
A positive edge indicates the market price is higher than the modeled fair odds.
AI Summary
Last updated: 2026-02-05
- • Fair odds are derived from modeled probabilities.
- • Value appears when market odds exceed the fair odds estimate.
- • Signals are informational and not a guarantee of outcome.
- • Use this page together with AI Predictions and match stats.
FAQ
What is a value bet?+
A selection where the offered odds are above the fair price.
Does value mean the bet will win?+
No. It only indicates positive expected value over time.
Why can value disappear?+
Odds move as markets react to new information.
Do you include bookmaker margin?+
Fair odds remove margin to show the model estimate.
Where can I see current value picks?+
Open the AI Predictions page and filter by date.